Two major risks are on the table:
1. Nuclear talks between US & Iran.
2. NVIDIA smashed earning expectations and still dropped 5.5%. Both of these have left Bitcoin in no man's land... Here's what's happening and what comes next.
Risk #1
The Biggest Risk Right Now is US & Iran Tensions
They failed to reach a deal in Geneva.
Iran wants nukes. The US says no.
If they don't reach a compromise, things will kick off.
A key thing we are watching is Oil price. Oil is sitting near $72. If it breaks higher, misiles will be launched.
Risk #2
Even Good News Is Being Sold
NVIDIA Broke Records. $68.1B revenue. $1.62 EPS. $78B Q1 guidance. All above expectations. Yet the stock dropped 5.5%, erasing $260B in value.
When good news gets sold, it's a warning that a broader market pullback could be next, and that would pressure crypto.
Crypto follows Nvidia closely, so if Nvidia smashes all earnings and the stock dropped, what does that mean for Bitcoin?
BTC Key Levels
Where we are buying: $50k-$60k.
This is where Bitcoin's fundamental cost floors all cluster, levels that have marked the bottom in every past bear market:
BUY ZONE
Realised Price (average cost of all BTC): $54k
Production Cost (cost to mine 1 BTC): $61k
Electrical Cost (bare minimum to mine): $49k
Key Dates to Watch
MAR 2 US-Iranyg Talks (Vienna)
MAR 6 Nonfarm Payrolls
MAR 12 CPI
MAR 18 MAR 19 FOMC Meeting
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